Friday, December 4, 2009

837% return in 33 days (Poker)

Smasharoo, a pro poker player, documented a return of 837% within 33 days, with very little volatility (adequate bet size management), at That’s pretty amazing. I have learned a few things from his much appreciated shared experience.

Minimum volatility

Position size/bankroll management and playing strategy largely optimize return volatility. Basically, understand the statistics behind your strategy and make betting size decisions with respect to it for optimization. The Kelly Formula is a pretty good reference.

High frequency of compounding

This explains why successful day traders practically always outperform those holding longer positions. I have discussed that even with a small statistical edge; higher frequency of compounding makes a HUGE difference (see Slight Edge Butterfly Effect).

Poker and financial instruments

I see a lot of similarities. They both hold inefficiencies due to varying skill levels, i.e. more informed players will consistently profit over time. So the key then lies in becoming more informed, the part that requires diligence, critical thinking, and probably guts too amidst discouragement from fixed, traditional thinkers. Kinda cool huh!

0 Reflections: