Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Dubai debt questions

OK, so UAE has banned Sunday London Times from disclosing actual debt figures. The state's future appears bleak. Let's see how it affects the rest of the world.

UAE existing debt

Figures are from Zero Hedge,

United Arab Emirates (via Bank of America - Amortization figures only):

Total Debt: $184 billion

of which...

Dubai: $88 billion
Abu Dhabi: $90 billion


Due in:
2010: $12.0 billion
2011: $19.0 billion
2012: $18.0 billion
2013: $ 7.5 billion
2014: $ 5.5 billion

Abu Dhabi:

Due in:
2010: $ 8.5 billion
2011: $14.7 billion
2012: $10.0 billion
2013: $12.4 billion
2014: $ 9.4 billion


Due in:
2010: $22.0 billion
2011: $34.7 billion
2012: $29.0 billion
2013: $20.3 billion
2014: $14.9 billion

Of United Arab Emirates (By Entity via Credit Suisse, citing Emirates Bank Association):

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited: $17.0 billion
Standard Chartered Bank: $ 7.8 billion
Barlays Bank Plc: $ 3.6 billion
ABN-Amro (RBS): $ 2.1 billion
Arab Bank Plc: $ 2.1 billion
Citibank: $ 1.9 billion
Bank of Baroda: $ 1.8 billion
Bank Saderat Iran: $ 1.7 billion
BNP Parabas: $ 1.7 billion
Lloyds: $ 1.6 billion

Credit derivatives

Leo Wang, a former SEC Enforcement Attorney, states

The key question is whether we have another AIG--i.e., a financial institution that wrote a large portion of the credit default swaps, or insurance, for Dubai debt protecting debt holders in the event of a default... These crises always have secondary and tertiary effects. Some market participants are getting nervous about debt of other UAE members, and also the debt of certain nations in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. What if credit default swaps for the debt of these other nations were written by a major financial institution that also wrote a lot of Dubai credit default swaps?

This blow up clearly affects American and European economies, perhaps of epic proportions.

0 Reflections: