Sunday, March 20, 2011

VIX trade effectiveness: quantitative or qualitative?

So on Thursday morning (near the Wed. close on NYSE), I made a post regarding my numbers (with + statistical expectancy) advising to short VIX futures, yet I did not follow through due to news of nuclear meltdown.

We can see that volatility did indeed drop significantly. This is not the first time, where I have gotten scared out of a good trade due to financial news bulletins. Looking back, performance would have been better if I had ignored the news and just stuck to the numbers entirely.

I am still uncertain if that is the wisest choice of action, but am leaning toward the "avoid all news" option at this point. Yes, it is completely against what most people believe, yet...

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect.
-- Mark Twain

0 Reflections: