Saturday, October 30, 2010

A market for political events

Future elections, political event probabilities are tradeable now as futures at Intrade. Of course like any other betting algorithms, a positive expectancy is required to make money over time. Finally, "hobbyist political analysts" like uncle Bob has the chance to back their opinions with some dough :)

Of course on the other hand, we could reference these numbers for a more precise forecast. After all, the market does not lie.
"Intrade makes more accurate predictions than I have ever come across."
John Stossel, 20/20 ABC

Looks like that semester of Political Science at junior college was worth it after all!

0 Reflections: