Sunday, January 10, 2010

China Inc. credit risk


So the Chinese banks have been lending money carelessly, it feels like the sub-prime mortgage thing all over again. Warnings unheeded tend to end badly.

According to the Chinese Central Bank governor at Bloomberg,
"
Zhou Xiaochuan reiterated government warnings that investment in industries with excess capacity and in redundant infrastructure projects could threaten banks’ loan quality. China’s policy makers are seeking to contain risks from an unprecedented credit boom, in which banks extended 9.21 trillion yuan ($1.3 trillion) of new loans in the first 11 months of 2009.
"

Then James Chanos states,
"
China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like 'Dubai times 1,000 — or worse'...
"

It has happened in the west, why not in China, too? It's gonna be a few interesting years coming ahead.

1 Reflections:

Herta said...

Never put off till tomorrow what may be done today..........................