Sunday, March 2, 2008

Don't Follow The Trend


The trend is not my friend. With every business industry, the leaders take the biggest cut out of the particular markets and the “followers” share the left over. This phenomenon provides a picture of current business culture, where the winning players set the trend, and a whole lot of losers work desperately to survive.

I have had two failed businesses before learning this valuable lesson. The world of economics does not operate in the manner of scientific laws in terms of cause and effect.

Every market of a specific product or service holds a very limited amount of payoff for each player, and the business cycle commences as the first player enters the game. Soon after, additional players enter hoping to eat up the remaining piece of the pie, where the trend becomes apparent. It is a deterministic game. Regardless of how the players strategize, by the product/service maturity stage, there would remain a few winners and a whole lot of losers.

Even in the world of stock or commodity trading, those performing with negative expectancy greatly outweigh ones who profit consistently. With the majority of traders literally embracing the idea of “trend following”, where one pursues historical price action for directional bias. Hence, the initial buyers/sellers take the largest slice of the pie. Does it not imply that this strategy gives nothing but fudge?

Waiting then emulating others’ strategies leads to nothing but arriving “late to the party”. You do not want to miss the party; that is where the money lies. Business schools still preach the cause and effect model, where case studies of past successful ventures fill curriculums. Perhaps this explains why their graduates do not have any particular edge in business operations than the average Joe.

When it comes down to it, innovators with the balls to execute novel ideas hold the highest probability of success.

Profitable opportunities exist all day long, but you must discover them yourself. It pays to become creative. Get a book on it, do your homework. Make something that the people want, but are not getting; and the odds of winning will certainly swing your way.




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2 Reflections:

Jason said...

Hey Bruce

nice post. I definitely agree with you. Fortune favors the bold.

Rocko said...

Thanks Jay, it means a lot to see feedback.

-Rocko