Sunday, September 4, 2011

Rise of betting exchange trading

Having some understanding of econometrics and Game Theory, a few friends and I have started looking at betting exchanges, particularly Betfair; whose growth has made traditional bookmakers increasingly obsolete. This is quite similar to the phenomenon of financial exchanges going electronic, leaving masses of floor trading "dinosaurs" unable to cope.

Here's a screenshot of US Open 2011 (Tennis) Winner market depth from a few minutes ago, like that of an order book off financial exchanges:


The best Back/Lay quotes (in the form of odds) resemble best "bid/offer" spreads for the traders. The quotes are dynamic, with respect to liquidity from each side. So from a financial trading perspective, these individual bets are really futures contracts that expire at the conclusion of the underlying events.

This of course brings a whole world of possibilities with sports betting. The arbitrage opportunities are diminishing as growing volumes have increased efficiency; yet at the same time increased liquidity makes shorter term trading and perhaps one day High Frequency Trading of sports bets possible. The key remains, as these exchanges have yet to uphold mature infrastructures, and are filled with dinosaur punters who have not kept up with technological advances, significant inefficiencies exist for profitable (and legal) exploits.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Sports etting rbitrage software discount

An associate of mine is offering this sports betting arbitrage software package. The basic idea is to find bookies whose odds present (almost) risk free net profit for specific sporting events.

US residents currently do not have access to online betting due to domestic laws.

Here's the kicker. If you decide to give it a try with a purchase, let me know that you've done so and you will receive a $10USD rebate from my associate.

Betting Arbitrage Software Link

Friday, January 21, 2011

Billy Walters and the Computer Group


The Computer Group is like a hedge fund who specialized in exploiting ineffiencies within the sports betting scene. Again, they started with a few math and computer guys, and this story ends with both success and grief.


"
...It was almost as if they had invented junk bonds. Every season the cash arrived by the millions, all because their computer told them which teams should be favored to win everything from the mammoth Ohio State-Michigan football game to the basket-ball game pitting Monmouth against Fairleigh Dickinson. The Computer Group did not fix games. It simply understood them.

The group began to assert its mastery of sports betting in 1980, when the computer as an everyday machine had no firm place in sports. Most of the big Las Vegas players of 1980 were still relying on their own good sense and whatever trends they could pick up. A computer seemed to them a gimmick from the future, a big blinking queen-bee serviced by men in white coats. There were relatively few of these "personal computers" that are everywhere today. As a matter of fact, the Computer Group didn't even own its own computer. Until 1983. the group settled for renting time on a computer 2,400 miles away in Rockville, Md. As for the group's invaluable program, it was maintained on thousands of clumsy old "batch" cards, kept in shoeboxes, then fed to the computer like hay into a thrasher.
"

I've looked at NFL statistics in the past and have found some interesting numbers, still opportunity cost remains high as my specialty remains in quantitative finance. It is nice to see that with a good understanding of math and stats, money isn't so hard to make today.